Bills, Syracuse need to take advantage of winnable games this weekend

                In my column for WROC-TV’s web site (www.rochesterhomepage.net) before the regular season kicked off last Sunday, I listed six things that needed to go right in order for Buffalo to end its playoff famine.

                Amazingly, the Bills wound up seeing things go wrong in five of the categories during their opener against the Jets, which explains why they were squashed and why many Buffalo fans are ready to jump off the third deck of the Ralph without a parachute or bunge cord.

                One game does not a season make, but there is major cause for concern.

                The Meadowlands Meltdown raised once more legitimate concerns about Ryan Fitzpatrick’s arm strength and decision-making. Those three interceptions were abominations, and a painful reminder of what we witnessed during last year’s second-half swoon. Fitz need not be a Pro Bowler for this team to win, but neither can he be the interception machine who led the Bills to just one victory in their final nine games in 2011. Consistency still eludes him despite all the off-season work on his mechanics, and you begin to wonder if what we see is what we’re going to continue to get – mediocrity.

                Of greater concern was the play of the supposedly revamped defense – specifically Not-So-Super Mario Williams, who managed just one tackle. If this guy doesn’t live up to the hype that comes with being the most handsomely rewarded defensive player in NFL history, Buffalo is in serious trouble.

                The injury bug already has taken its toll and a unit that appeared to be a strength going into the season – special teams – was burned for a long touchdown return vs. the Jets.

                And, boom, just like that, all the optimism that had been building for six months was gone.

                Fortunately, the Bills have two upcoming games that give them a chance to get well soon. I really believe they will give a more spirited effort in their home opener Sunday against a Kansas City Chiefs team that also was spanked in its opener. I expect better performances from Fitz and Williams. And I would hope that the Bills corners tighten their coverage and stop treating every receiver as if he were Usain Bolt sprinting for the gold.

                I foresee a win over the Chiefs, followed by a win in Cleveland against the Browns next Sunday.

                At least, that’s what better happen, or you can kiss this season goodbye because a home game against New England and road contests at San Francisco and Arizona follow, and the Bills could be looking at a start reminiscent of two years ago.

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                 Speaking of teams that need a win . . . Syracuse returns home to play Stony Brook in the Carrier Dome tomorrow. You might figure that a team that went toe-to-toe with the nation’s second-ranked team last week should have an easy time against an FCS (1AA) school. But there’s not a huge difference between a mediocre Division I football program and a good FCS football program. And if you don’t believe me, just ask Colorado, which lost to Sacramento State, or Colorado State, which fell to North Dakota State. The moral of this story is that the Orange better come to play or it could be looking at an 0-3 record.              

Thoughs on Air Marrone and my prediction for the Bills-Jets

I was very impressed with the way Syracuse hung with second-ranked USC, but in the end the cream rose to the top as Matt Barkley showed why he is the Heisman frontrunner and Marqis Lee and Robert Woods showed why they are the best wide receiver tandem in college football. Barkley didn’t force the issue against the game but overmatched Orange defense. He just put the ball in position for Lee (3 TD receptions) and Woods (2) to make plays in the end zone, which they did – even against double coverage. Barkley finished with six TD tosses. That was the most ever yielded by a Syracuse football team.

Still, there is much to be encouraged about if you are an Orange football fan. It’s apparent that their pass-happy offense, triggered by fifth-year QB Ryan Nassib, can put points up against anybody. SU trailed by just five points in the fourth quarter, before the Trojans superior playmakers did their thing to pull away for a 42-29 victory.

I agree with Chris Spielman, the former Ohio State/Buffalo Bills-linebacker-turned-college-football-analyst that SU has the talent to contend for a league championship in the weak Big East Conference. The Orangemen need to shore up a few things – especially on special teams, where they continue to get burned on returns at pivotal junctures. (Head coach Doug Marrone needs to rethink his decision to handle special teams chores.) This team appears to have great upside and should become better as the season progresses. Regardless what happens, they’re going to be fun to watch because of their potency on offense.

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It’s a good thing Nassib isn’t on a Stephen Strasburg innings limit or he’d be shut down by mid-season. The Cuse signalcaller is averaging 55.5 passes through two games. Projected over the 12-game regular season, that computes to 666 attempts. Extrapolating his numbers over 12 games, Nassib would finish with 4,752 yards, 36 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.

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You may have read or heard that ESPN expert Chris Mortensen tweeted that Barkley wasn’t going to be the only NFL-caliber quarterback playing in yesterday’s game at MetLife Stadium. Yes, Nassib is starting to receive some NFL buzz and currently projects as a mid-to-late round pick. I think he has a ways to go – especially with regards to his touch passes – but he certainly is justifying the look by NFL scouts.

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I have the Bills ekeing out a 20-16 victory against the Jets in their season opener today. I think Buffalo’s defense will do a decent job of bottling up the Jets run game (including wildcat QB Tim Tebow) and putting some pressure on Mark Sanchez, who statistically ranks as the worst starting quarterback vs. heated pass rushes. I also believe Buffalo will rely on a heavy dose of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller running the ball, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both backs out there together for 5-10 plays.

You can read my season-preview Bills column for WROC-TV at www.rochesterhomepage.net. I’ll be posting a fresh column off of this game and appearing on FOX 31 and Channel 8’s sportscasts at 10 and 11, respectively, so please check me out.              

Admiration for Jeter's consistent brilliance, plus musings on the Bills exhibition performances, the new Wings-Twins agreement & SU football's trip up north

One baseball story that’s been overlooked this season is the continued excellence of Derek Jeter. The marvelously consistent Yankees shortstop enters tonight’s game against the Red Sox with a league-leading 160 hits and a nifty .317 batting average.

 Not too shabby for a 38-year-old who looked like he was washed up during the first few months of the 2011 season when he was hitting more dribblers than line drives.

       Jeter currently ranks 12^th on baseball’s all-time hits list with 3,248, and will crack the Top 10 with just 36 more hits, surpassing both Eddie Murray and Willie Mays.

            

    He has a legitimate shot at cracking the top five with an average season in 2013.

            

    The juicy question, of course, is if El Capitan has a shot at the Hit King, Pete Rose.

    

            He does, but it’s not going to be easy. As Rose told me in an interview in Cooperstown several years ago, “The last 1,000 hits of my career were 10 times harder to get than the first 3,000.”

    

            Jeter clearly has kept himself in impeccable shape, but Father Time eventually catches up with all of us, including elite athletes. Down the road, expect to see Jeter spend more time in the DH slot and at some point, probably after signing a contract extension in two years, he will have to switch to a position that is less demanding than shortstop. That could be a combination of third base (think Cal Ripken Jr. at the end of his career) and DH. Some have suggested a shift to left or centerfield, but I think the inevitable diminution of skills will preclude such a move at this late stage of his career.

    

            In the meantime, we should try to enjoy the consistent excellence of this remarkable ballplayer.

    

            Spectacular always gets noticed. Day-after-day excellence isn’t as sexy and often gets overlooked.

    

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            Some observations after the Bills first two glorified exhibitions:

        

            Donald Jones clearly has cemented his grip on the No. 2 wide receiver spot opposite Stevie Johnson.

 T.J. Graham’s sprinter’s speed and crisper routes could give the Bills the field-stretcher they’ve been looking for since Lee Evans was in his prime.

 I believe that, unless he stinks up the joint in these last two preseason contests, Vince Young will beat out Tyler Thigpen for the backup QB job.

And, despite the fact Mario Williams doesn’t have a recorded tackle in two games, Buffalo’s D-line is going to be as good as advertised and create some havoc for opposing quarterbacks.

        

            I haven’t been enamored so far with the play of the linebacking corps – this unit really needs to step it up.

 And the O-line has looked a little shaky, but I remember how putrid this unit looked last exhibition season and it wound up greatly exceeding expectations.

        

           This week’s home exhibition vs. Pittsburgh will give us a slightly more focused look, with the starters possibly playing into the second half. But neither team will be game-planning or showing its hands, so, again, watch everything with a grain of salt.

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         I think the two-year extension of the player development contract with the Minnesota Twins was the right move by the Rochester Red Wings. The Twins have put a much better ballclub on the field at Frontier Field after the worst back-to-back seasons by the Wings in nearly a century. It continues to be a good working relationship, much better than the one the Buffalo Bisons have had with the New York Mets, whom Buffalo probably will dump in favor of the Toronto Blue Jays. I also like the fact that the Wings continue to sign two-year, rather than long-term extensions. The shorter contracts help prevent the big club from taking you for granted.

                                                                      

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           Classy move by Doug Marrone to have his Syracuse University football team spend this past week at Fort Drum, interacting with members of the U.S. Army. He, his assistants and his players no doubt learned some valuable lessons from the soldiers – lessons that should benefit them not only this football season, but throughout their lives.

               

It's very early Bills fans, but reasons for optimism appear justified

                Twenty-eight summers of covering NFL training camps has taught me how foolhardy it can be to jump to any conclusions. I saw many a Bills team that looked great in Fredonia or St. John Fisher that wound up looking putrid come the regular season. That said, I can’t help but be impressed with what I’ve seen so far from the new-and-improved Bills.

                Among the things that have caught my eye:

·         The unblockable defensive line. Mario Williams, the $100-million man, looks like he is going to be worth every penny the Bills invested in him. He’s a 6-foot-6, 290-pound walking solar eclipse who’s quick and nimble and strong. At the other defensive end, fleet-footed Mark Anderson has displayed a quirky, but effective array of pass-rushing moves that have befuddled his offensive linemates. In the interior of the line, Marcell Dareus appears to have taken a quantum leap from his solid rookie campaign and veteran tackle Kyle Williams looks to be healthy and back to Pro Bowl form. It’s very, very early, but if these guys stay healthy, this group has the potential to become the best defensive line in team history.

·         Ryan Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball better than ever. The mechanical work he’s done with new quarterbacks coach David Lee is already paying dividends as Fitz has been hitting the bulls-eye with great frequency. Of course, it will be interesting to see if this continues when the games begin. It’s difficult to unlearn bad habits and there’s a tendency to revert to them when the pressure’s on. But Fitz is a bright guy and this is an encouraging development.

·         Third-year receiver Marcus Easley has looked impressive. He’s big and swift and appears to be ready to fulfill the potential the Bills saw in him when they drafted him in the fourth round out of Connecticut three Aprils ago. The problem with Easley, of course, has been his health. A knee injury sidelined him for all of 2010 and a heart ailment – which he says has been remedied – put him on IR for all of last season. If this guy finally catches a break and stays on the field for a full season, look out.

·         Rookie cornerback Stephon Gilmore might be ready to start right now. The Bills first-round draft pick is fearless. I’ve watched him go one-on-one against Buffalo’s top receiver Stevie Johnson numerous times in camp and he’s more than held his own. Not bad for a young guy locking horns with a veteran pass-catcher who’s the first player in franchise history to compile back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

·         Fred Jackson looks like he hasn’t missed a beat. Everybody talks about how C.J. Spiller has to get more touches – and I agree – but Chan Gailey would be foolish not to utilize Steady Freddy as much as possible. The running back, who had his MVP-caliber season cut six games short by a broken leg, appears to be as explosive as ever. Freddy is still the engine that drives this offense.